Szamuely, Helen. "What if Lenin's 'sealed' train had not reached Petrograd in 1917?"
Divergence: 1917 CE
What if: Vladimir Lenin had not been present in Petrograd in 1917 to directly shape events.
Summary: Essay primarily discussing what happened in 1917 but concluding with a couple pages of speculation on the effect of Lenin's non-presence. No Bolshevik coup takes place in October, liberal democracies would more likely have succeeded in post-war Europe without anti-Bolshevik hysteria, and after perhaps a military coup, some sort of authoritarian-democratic government would take hold in Russia.
Published: In Prime Minister Portillo… and other things that never happened (eds. Duncan Brack and Iain Dale), q.v.